Post Week 10 NFL Betting Review
What a weekend of football – our props smashed, our Discord was smartly advised to buy out of their New Orleans Saints positions, although as we said to take the Saints on the Fat Cast: NFL Bettorman Podcast – it’s a recorded loss. We smashed our two biggest plays – San Francisco 49ers -3.0 and Kyle Philips over 19.5 receiving yards.
Detroit Lions -2.5 @ $1.90/-110
This some could say was luck – I would say this was the right team prevailing under a severely handicapped officiating game. From most angles, when the Los Angeles Chargers needed a bit of help, they got it. This isn’t taking anything away from the phenomenal passing of Justin Herbert, but, they had a lot of dubios flags thrown in their favor in important situations.
Jared Goff indoors continues to be the best cover machine the NFL and the Detroit Lions move to 7-2-0 and look to be real contenders at this point.
Our betting angle in this game never waiver it was the Lions, and only the Lions despite the late moves on the Chargers. Our edge laid in the poor Chargers defense, and it was on display throughout, especially with the Lions converting multiple 4th down attempts.
Lions 41-38 Chargers
San Francisco 49ers -3.0 @ $1.90/-110
This one was my biggest bet of the day and the edge for this contest laid in the devaluation betting markets had in the 49ers defense due to a handful of bad games.
The one thing people had overlooked in this spot, was the ineffectiveness of Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence against top rated defenses. Lawrence has struggled mightily in his career against any defense rated 15th or higher. This was no shock here at Fat Beard Sports, that Lawrence was as effective as a homing missile without a chipset.
As was mentioned on the podcast, the 49ers devaluation was wrong. The output by the defense was directly related to the offense and the concussion fatigue that Brock Purdy had displayed after the double concussion. This bet was never in doubt and it being the top rated play on the week made it even better.
Result: 49ers 34-3 Jaguars
Tennessee Titans +1.5 @ $1.90/-110
This was rightly analyzed by my LM and model and the point band for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was right on the money being a 14-20 point band. However, the lack of devaluation of the Titans offensive line was a whiff on my part. The point band projected for the Tennessee Titans was 20-24, however, the offensive line as bad as it is, should account for a minimum of a -6 degredation on Titans point projection.
There isn’t much positive to say about this selection, everything looked right on paper and sometimes it just doesn’t go to plan. If DeAndre Hopkins catches the late deep ball – then maybe this game would be a little bit closer.
Titans 6-20 Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 @ $1.90/-110
Now we look at the trend of fading Head Coaches who have been nothing short of useless. As per the Head Coach power rankings – Arthur Smith sits second last, and this is an important factor when considering placing money on his roster to win. The talent is there – the coaching is not.
This was a massive fade spot of an over valued Atlanta Falcons team that has been under performing and under achieving now for the best part of two seasons. Expecting them to turn the ship in one week isn’t going to happen. In this spot, against a quarterback coming off a long absence, with a new head coach, it should have been a smash spot for the Falcons….this is how bad Arthur Smith is as a head coach that he couldn’t win, even with all these positive trends supporting him.
Sometimes, fading a coach is an important angle, especially when money moves support it.
Falcons 23-25 Cardinals
New Orleans Saints -2.5 @ $1.90/-110
This was a straight up fail spot for the Saints. Unfortunately, we failed along with them. Derek Carr left the game injured, the Saints tried to march on back in to the game, but Astro Dobbs and the late sharp movers were the wise plays in this one.
The negative to doing these plays before the late sharp moves, is, sometimes you will get late information that means you need to buy out of a position, which was the case here. Our members in the discord got fed this late information but as mentioned, as we listed it on the podcast this is a loss.
The Saints offense was very slow and lethargic, slow off the mark and the Minnesota Vikings were fast, running away early with the momentum this team has found. The Dobbs train is on full blast right now and momentum is an important betting point. Late Saturday a handful of highly respected syndicates came in late on the Vikings and the wise guys proved wise once again here.
Gotta take those losses on the chin, it was a tough one when the Saints looked so bad out of the gate, but lucky enough to buy out of the spot before the kickoff.
Saints 19-27 Vikings
Prop Picks
Kyle Philips over 19.5 receiving
Result – 3 receptions 61 yards receiving
Trevor Lawrence u243.5 passing yards
Result – 185 passing yards
Jason Myers over 6.5 kicking points
Result – 17 Kicking Points
Drake London over 46.5 receiving yards
Result – 3 receptions 36 yards
Gabe Davis over 37.5 receiving yards
Result – PENDING
*gamble responsibly help is available
*all posted odds were accurate at time of posting – odds sourced from bet365.com
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