Fat Cast Bettorman NFL Week 15 Best Bets
Last week was an absolute blast, and, we had comments asking if we could make a weekly post on the website for the Podcast picks – obviously we can happily oblige to that request. Last week five easy wins, this week, the board looks a little more murky, but our contest picks we are very happy with. With that said, let’s jump into it.
Tennesse Titans -2.5 v Houston Texans
This is just a great spot, we got this at -2.5 in our contest and we shared our information against the Texans in this spot in our free to join Discord. This line no longer exists, but, we got in early enough to get the best line available. Now, this is no guarantee to cover just because Davis Mills is at quarterback and he has nobody to throw to.
We break this down by seeing that Derrick Henry has a career average in rush yard against this team of 200+ rush yards per game. DeAndre Hopkins is on track for a career season with Will Levis and, how the Texans defense is run, he will be in 1 on 1 coverage all game which will help Levis get into the yards needed to put points on the board.
The only way the Texans can win here is a Titans capitulation and their poor secondary. Mills has beaten this team previously in a Ryan Tannehill meltdown match. However, our systems and the data + information leans heavily on the Titans which is why this line has shifted from +2.5 to -3.5 on the Titans.
Projection: Tennessee Titans 27-17 Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 v Indianapolis Colts
The Steelers are in a traditional bounce back spot against one of the most luckiest teams in the NFL, the Colts. Mitch Trubisky isn’t a quarterback you want to trust with your money, but, if there’s a secondary he can beat, it’s this one.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren need to be champing at the bit to get after this paltry rush defense, and this will be the straw on the camles back that breaks the Colts. The Steelers will pound the rock 30+ times between the running back duo + Mitch Trubisky.
The defense leans in favor of the Steelers, the running back competency leans in the Steelers favor and professional money sits heavily on the shoulders of the Steelers. Pittsburgh is the way here.
Projection: Pittsburgh Steelers 24-17 Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons -3.0 v Carolina Panthers
This isnjust a spot play – you may be concerned about missing the best of the number with a Falcons team that traditionally starts slow, but everything the Falcons defense does well – the Panthers defense is terrible at doing. Bryce Young is not an NFL calibre quarterback and the Falcons defense is quietly top tier.
Desmond Ridder will be the X- Factor in a cover here. Everyone knows he isn’t going to be this teams quarterback next season because he is dreadful, but, he is capable of doing enough here to get the win by 6-9 points. Drake London is a future star receiver, whether his team will allow him to flourish or not. Kyle Pitts will have an edge across the middle, as long as his head coach Art Smith game plans him into it.
The Panthers are missing every key cornerback in this contest, have a slow pass rush and a weak lineback group. This team is bad across the board and the Falcons should have the cover here.
Projection: Atlanta Falcons 20-13 Carolina Panthers
San Francisco 49ers -12.5 v Arizona Cardinals
This is a game that I have etched down as a two touchdown difference and seeing a shorter than 13 line had my interest. Could be a stinky, smelly trap line here, as nothing about it makes sense, but, sometimes you need to hold you nose and dive straight into the manure pile.
The 49ers are the best side in the NFL right now, the Cardinals are arguably in the worst five conversation. The expectation here is for the best to roll and the worst to stroll. Brock Purdy is your league MVP right now whether you like it or not, and, after being called a game manager all week, I expect him to come out and give the mouth breathers a big old fuck you statement game.
Surrounded by All Pro players, Christian McCaffery, Deebo Suel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk in that one spot, the Cardinals just don’t have the pieces to stop this combination from overwhelming them. A healthy Brock is different to a double concussed Brock as I mentioned on the podcast previously. This game is going to be hard for the Cardinals to move the ball – 49ers could easily drop another 40 points here.
Projection: San Francisco 49ers 37-20 Arizona Cardinals
Philadelphia Eagles -3.0 v Seattle Seahawks
This game is a measuring stick of how bad the Philadelphia Eagles secondary truly is. A banged up Geno Smith or a starting Drew Lock should be able to move the ball through the air with elite receiving targets like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
However, the Eagles offense is far more diverse talent wise and are better situation on the offensive line, defensive line and at quarterback. The expectation here is for the Seahawks offense to shrink under pressure like it consistently does, and this is just a spot for the Eagles to get themselves right with a statement win.
Expectation of a big defensive showing by the Eagles is what is expected here and the Seahawks routinely disappear against teams that know how to get after the quarterback, exactly what the Eagles can do.
Projection: Philadelphia Eagles 24-20 Seattle Seahawks
*gamble responsibly help is available
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