National Rugby League Early Look Round 5
Round 4’s article wasn’t able to be uploaded in time, but Round 3’s was a hit – however if you were following @Fatbeardg on X, then you would have seen the early lines went 3-0. This weeks early line looks are already out there in the “x-er verse?” Either-way – lets get into it.
Melbourne Storm (-4.5) v Brisbane Broncos
An interesting matchup with two sides on the improve here. The Storms untenable love for strong, point throttling defence will be on display again here. Having a week off, and Craig Bellamy champing at the bit to knock off a grand final team again after beating the Penrith Panthers round 1 will definitely be on Bellamy’s mind here. This side will be primed for this contest.
The Broncos are starting to find a bit of a groove now with Adam Reynolds back on the paddock. We were all over the Broncos on the early look ahead and they stomped the Cows out of the stadium 38-12. Having the leadership of Reynolds again is instrumental in this sides success or failure. However, will he be enough to keep this game under a converted try?
The line for this game is exactly where we have it at -4.5. Any movement should be taken into consideration.
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (+9.5) v Sydney Roosters
The Bulldogs will probably be kicking themselves after failing to chew on a Rabbit last week. 16-20 was the final score and the game was definitely winnable if not for a handful of errors. For a side that was a complete waste of time to watch a season ago – they are playing competitive football again – however the skill gap is considerable between these two rosters.
Dom Young wasn’t able to find the line against the Panthers last week as the Rooster took a controversial loss. This week should be more favourable as he has a much softer defensive matchup. The Roosters are bigger, fitter and stronger in the middle and far more athletic on the outside. If the halves can find synergy, they can win this by 13+.
We had this line at +11.5/-11.5 so right now it shows some slight value towards the Roosters.
Newcastle Knights (-6.5) v St.George Illawarra Dragons
The Knights are learning the hard way at the moment why you don’t let try scoring machines walk out of the building. The lack of a skilled scorer like Dom Young was for them last season is what this team is lacking – there is no killer instinct in front of the try line. They find themselves as favourites in this contest but many could argue that it is undeserved.
The Dragons are doing exactly what they do every season – go hard the opening seven weeks, collecting a handful of upsets and then they fade out. Is this going to be the same Dragons team we see every season? Who knows, but in this contest they are very much a live dog if they play clean footy.
We had this line set at +5.5/-5.5 so the line represents a small parcel of value on the Dragons currently.
South Sydney Rabbitohs (+1.5) v New Zealand Warriors
The Rabbitohs got away with one last week against the Bulldogs. Is Jack Wighton really that much of a difference maker for this team? Alex Johnson continues to lack form as much as Cody Walker is lacking in discipline. This side has a lot of holes and this line being so low raises some questions. The Warriors at this point are the much better side.
Is this line telling us something we don’t know this week? The Warriors are a much more well rounded side than the Rabbitohs and have been competitive against some of the best rosters in the competition. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak hasn’t found the line in two weeks and has a positive matchup this week. The Warriors failed to cover the -8.5 last week against the Knights winning 20-12. But you have to side with the Warriors here.
This line is off for us as we have the Warriors at -3.5, this represents good value on the Warriors however, the line being set at -1.5 might make this one a hold your nose special as this one stinks.
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (+3.5) v Penrith Panthers
The Sea Eagles had a coming back to earth party after a strong start to the season after they were bottled up by the Dragons 12-20. The heavy front supported by the quicker second row is what is keeping the Eagles competitive in most contests. Manly will need to be at their best if they are to win this – even if Nathan Cleary isn’t cleared to play.
The Panthers may have started a little rusty with that 0-8 loss to the Storm, but since then they have been unstoppable. With an average margin of victory being 12 points since then, including the Grand Final rematch against the Broncos and a win last week against the Roosters sans Cleary puts them exactly where everyone expected them to be – the best in the comp. This weeks matchup isn’t an easy one – but the general rule of thumb is the better teams will cover. That is the case here.
This is a hard line to manage as with Cleary this line would be set more towards -6.5/+6.5 if Cleary doesn’t play this line should be closer to -3.5/+3.5. We must wait until player availability is confirmed.
“Not Redcliffe” Dolphins (-3.5) v Wests Tigers
Being down 10-0 early on against the Titans didn’t seem to rattle the cages for the Dolphins. Instead they stood tall and ended up winning the contest last week on the back of a first half brace from Jack Bostock. The young 20-year-old is definitely beginning to warm up to the big stage and that is a good thing for the Dolphins.
The Tigers come into this one on the back of two straight wins, one against the Sharks 32-6 and Easter Monday against the Eels 17-16. With a good head of steam it is easy to understand why they are currently only getting 3.5 points against a high flying Dolphins team. While the Tigers finally have the experience they were sorely lacking – they still don’t have the dynamism that the Dolphins have. Between the two though it is like splitting hairs as both teams are known to lay eggs at random.
For us, we had this line set closer to -4.5/+4.5 and at this stage will be happy to leave it alone unless drastic money movement shifts the line.
North Queensland Cowboys (-15.5) v Gold Coast Titans
The Cowboys will be licking their wounds after getting battered by their biggest interstate rival – the Broncos last week. This week, they have the little brother coming for a visit in the Gold Coast Titans. The Cows’ will be better off this week after the loss and hosting a spiraling Titans side, where key players apparently already want out – explains the massive line here. Not much to be noted, the Cows’ should win this straight up – the cover could be more questionable.
10-0 lead last week to a 14-30 beat-down. The Titans simply put – are just not a good side, and the return of David Fafita simply put won’t be enough for this team to keep the battle of spoon at bay. To top that off – a bizarre contract out has been put up in the limelight for Fafita and he could simply walk away from the side, which at this stage, would seem like a wise career choice. This team isn’t getting better any time soon.
While -15.5 is a very high line – this is the type of contest where Kyle Feldt could score a hat-trick and fans wouldn’t be overly impressed by considering the opposing skill level is equitable to a high school team.
Canberra Raiders (-2.5) v Parramatta Eels
The Raiders shot out to a hot start against the Sharks this weekend holding an 18-0 lead. They would ultimately go on to do what this team is known for – blowing a lead. 18-0 quickly turned into a 22-36 loss as the Sharks would rattle off a quick 30 unanswered points. They go on to face a more attackingly dynamic opponent this week – but this match could go either way.
Parramatta are coming into this one on the back of a painstaking 16-17 loss to the Tigers, a game they will be kicking themselves over as it was there for the taking and later in the season it could come back to haunt them. The Raiders have been playing great attacking football and poses problems for the Eels in just about every key area. If Mitchell Moses 100%? Likely not.
The -2.5 for the Raiders currently sits a full point under the -3.5 that we had this set at. If Mitchell Moses isn’t able to go, which he likely won’t be, this line will adjust. One to keep an eye on.
