National Rugby League Early Look Round 3
With a semi-consistent round 2 of NRL football, we saw some upsets, but majority of the games this week went as one would expect. As for lines, the plus handicap bettor again, had a more successful week than the those who took the points for the second week in a row. Let’s take a look at Round 3 matchups and early lines.
Penrith Panthers (-10.5) v Brisbane Broncos
Coming in on the back of a game against the Eels where the scoreline doesn’t do the game justice. The Panthers dominated the Eels, if not for some costly errors, this score would have been closer to 40-18. Isaiah Yeo put in a vintage performance including a brilliant try assist. The Panthers just seem to find new ways to win, despite the slow start.
The Broncos on the other hand, opened with a woeful start against the Roosters, then backed that up with an expected win and cover against an injury riddled Rabbitohs. This week is a revenege spot as many would say, but the lack of leadership is evident with this team. While the Broncos have a ton of individual talent that could keep this game close – they need the experience to stand up and lead.
This line as it is right now is one that needs to be monitored, it is right about where we have it, -10. This could adjust of course the closer we get to kickoff.
New Zealand Warriors (-7.5) v Canberra Raiders
The Warriors have unexpectedly started 0-2 where many thought they would be 1-1 at worst here. On the verge of closing out the upset win last week against the Storm – they allowed one of early contenders for try of the year as Xavier Coates flew from five metres out to score a barn burner of a try that sank the Warriors to 0-2. This is a very winnable game for the Warriors and they have the talent to put the Raiders forward pack to the sword early.
Back to back wins for the nations capital, the Raiders are playing above levels expected of them. If you have bewildering depths up front – you will be able to bully smaller teams, which was made evident Round 1 when they seemingly bullied the Knights and then took their lunch money winning 28-12. Last week they walloped one of the leagues worst teams in Wests Tigers so not much to be taken from that.
We have this line relatively close to the listed line. -8.0, another line to keep an eye on. However, the Warriors have the scoring talent to win this by 10 if they turn up defensively.
Sydney Roosters (-4.5) v South Sydney Rabbitohs
The Sydney Roosters enter this contest on the back of a tough loss to the Sea Eagles 21-14. The positive they can take from this is that Dominic Young is still an absolute weapon when near the try line as he bagged a double in the loss. They are against a side that is struggling for fit players, with one of the more bruising rotations in the league, expect the Roosters to find that winning formula again here.
The Rabbitohs are just scrapping their way through things early in the season. They are lacking depth due to injuries and starters are bit out of form with silly mistake after silly mistake. Names like Cody Walker and Lachlan Ilias who are yet to hit the level expected of them here. This will be a tough ask against one of the most physical teams in the league looking to avoid back to back losses.
The Rabbitohs lack direction at the moment and this game is primed for the Roosters to win. We have this set at -5.5 for the Roosters.
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (-1.5) v Gold Coast Titans
The Bulldogs are averaging 7 points per game through two games, failing to score a point in the final 67 minutes against the Cronulla Sharks in round 2. Over this same span they have allowed 51 points defensively. This is a recipe for disaster should it continue. In a game marred by continuous unforced errors the Bulldogs would end up getting eaten late by the Sharks as it ended 25-6. Good news though, Blake Wilson looks like a star in the making.
A weeks rest after failing to be the Dragons round 1 as the favourite, not only did they lose, they got obliterated 4-28. The week off allowed this team to reset, regain focus and get that defense tightened up as they face the most inefficient side in this early NRL season. Expect to see Philip Sami make an impact in this contest.
This line is potentially favouring the wrong side, the Titans should be -2.5 favourites heading into this contest. The Bulldogs haven’t fixed or changed anything this season and this will be one of those games they wish they had of won when the battle for the spoon tightens up.
St.George Illawarra Dragons (+7.5) v North Queensland Cowboys
Getting embarrassed last week by the Dolphins 38-0, the Dragon lifelong story of being that Dr.Jeckel Mr.Hyde team continues. One of the most historically difficult team to project performance for face one of their toughest contests early on. The Cowboys on paper are the far better side and the line for this contest reflects this. If the Dragons want to have a chance they need to shut down Kyle Feldt and hope that Mikaele Ravalawa can find some form.
The Cowboys almost got beat by the Knights in round 2, but managed to dig deep and put in a spirited effort to comeplete the comeback in Golden Point 21-20. Jeremiah Nanai tied the game up in the 77th minute and the Knights will be ruing the missed opportunity after starting 12-0. The Cowboys as many expected are 2-0 and are in a very good spot to go 3-0 here.
The Dragons are a notorious team at racking up upsets historically early in the season before the fade into the bottom third of the table. Against a stronger line-up than last week where they were held scoreless, the expectation here is that the Cowboys win this one and they should be able to dictate the pace of play and control the clock. We had a similar line set for this one at +/-7.5 any movement should be monitored.
Wests Tigers (+11.5) v Cronulla Sharks
Wests Tigers are doing everything possible to avoid the dreaded wooden spoon treble and after having round 1 on the sidelines with a bye, more time to prep for round 2 and look to start hot – they put up 12 points while conceding 32. So, despite a coaching change – this team seems as poor as ever and are going to be a live contender for the spoon. Lacking talent, in almost every spot, they will struggle to score against the Sharks top 5 defense. Tigers fans should look to spending time with their friends and families this week.
Cronulla sit 2-0 after a round 1 upset of the Warriors backed into a 25-6 methodical dismantling of a weak Bulldogs team. This is a very good spot for the Sharks to start the year 3-0 and they can do so with what should be viewed as more of a formality. This Tigers side is quite possibly one of the worst to ever be fielded in the NRL, and a side with top 4 aspirations don’t want to take a loss like this on their resumรจ.
This line is set fairly, and the chance is real that the Sharks could win this by 18 or more. However, we have this set at -12.0 on the Sharks.
Parramatta Eels (-1.5) v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
The Eels started the season in the express lane with a strong 28-6 win over a weak Bulldogs side, then backed it up by losing to last years premiers 26-18. Their opponent this round is a tricky one. Despite being at CommBank Stadium, the Eels don’t matchup well with the Eagles here. However they have a letdown spot advantage for an overpeforming Eels, which is reflected in the line. J’Maine Hopgood will continue to do the dirty work needed of him upfront – it just depends on which version of Mitchell Moses turns up for the Eels.
The Eagles new halves pairing is developing chemistry much faster than most anticipated. A round 1 beatdown of an injured Rabbitohs 36-24 led into a solid 21-14 win over the Roosters. The Eels present less of a threat than their opponent a week ago, and despite this being a true letdown spot for the Sea Eagles, this line tells a story. A home side starts life with a -3.5 edge, and if you value the Sea Eagles halves to present more scoring value that 1.5 points then the Sea Eagles would be your play.
We have this game as -2.5 for visiting side, depending on how this early line moves throughout the week – we may adjust this. However as it stands, the Sea Eagles present great value getting points. Should Manly drift and get more points – then that would be a concern.
Newcastle Knights (+3.5) v Melbourne Storm
The Knights were one of the teams I was high on coming in to the season. What we have learned after two weeks, they are the same animal as a season ago. They will start slow – blow leads and then find a way to wind consistently when the pressure is on. This week, the pressure is on as they try to avoid a 0-3 start. This team runs through Kalyn Ponga and it is painfully clear, it will go through him whether it works or not. No Dominic Young means this team needs to find a try scorer somewhere, and they may have found it in Adam Elliott, but they would like to get Greg Marzhew a bit more involved. This is the toughest matchup they’ve faced this season.
The well oiled machine that is the Melbourne Storm just continues to be the juggernaut of consistency they are known as. An 8-0 round 1 win over the reigning premiers – Penrith Panthers, then a late, instant classic 30-26 win over the Warriors in round 2 has the Storm sitting good. The Knights lack that punch in the middle of the field to overcome the Storms discipline. This reads as a game the Storm should win being the better side. But should’s don’t always translate to will’s in the sports realm.
The Knights have shown that they can’t handle pressure through the middle of the field and this is exactly where the Storm excels. We had this set at -5.5 for the Storm and will review this should the line shrink towards the Knights.
